RE: Requesting short meeting to discuss Aura development

I know the town was interested in a small grocery here for a number of reasons, but I never heard that there was an anchor that was actually interested. One of the big issues was the high traffic grocery stores generate.

Small retail is very complicated. It’s interesting to look at Southern Village, where retail has struggled, even with fairly dense housing in the area and significant office tenants to produce foot traffic during the day.

From: Jon Mitchell <capt.jdm@gmail.com>
Sent: Wednesday, February 17, 2021 11:49 PM
To: Amy Ryan <aryan@townofchapelhill.org>
Subject: Re: Requesting short meeting to discuss Aura development

External email: Don't click links or attachments from unknown senders. To check or report forward to reportspam@townofchapelhill.org

Thanks for these interesting documents, Amy. It seems like a key data point is how many households live within 2-3 miles of Aura. The authors suggest 15 sq ft of retail space per household as a rough starting point. The current Aura proposal has approximately 420 units/households, which is almost half the households needed to support 15,000 sq ft of retail (i.e., roughly double the current proposal), using the suggested rule of thumb. If we add Shadowood, Timber Hollow, and Azalea Estates, we may be there, without even considering the single family neighborhoods (like mine) and other multifamily units in the immediate area. That said, the authors emphasize that they are providing a "starting point to be adapted to the situation" and that a site-specific analysis is critical. That seems right.

Incidentally, if I recall correctly, one concept plan for this property that the Council rejected 3-4 years ago had a grocery store anchor tenant. I don't think any specific grocery store signed on, but if I'm not mistaken there is precedent for an actual developer thinking that neighborhood retail would work here. You probably know more about that history than I. Of course, retail is not Trinsic's business, but that's a separate issue.

Thanks again for the useful information.

Jon

On Wed, Feb 17, 2021 at 11:15 AM Amy Ryan <aryan@townofchapelhill.org> wrote:

Hi Jon:

Hoping staff can come up with some more recent, site-specific numbers for us, but in the meantime, here’s a paper that discusses the general demographic characteristics needed to support small-scale commercial. It’s from 2009, so it’s aging, but at the least is a good introduction to the topic and I think the general principles still hold. I’ve also included a presentation based on the paper that was part of the American Planning Association’s Brown Bag Lunch education program.

Amy

From: Jon Mitchell <capt.jdm@gmail.com>
Sent: Tuesday, February 16, 2021 10:07 PM
To: Amy Ryan <aryan@townofchapelhill.org>
Subject: Re: Requesting short meeting to discuss Aura development

External email: Don't click links or attachments from unknown senders. To check or report forward to reportspam@townofchapelhill.org

Thanks, Amy. Yes, I understand the concern that commercial might struggle, and I take it seriously. But I haven't seen any property-specific analysis at all to support or refute it. It seems like most stakeholders would prefer a more "mixed" use, but nobody quite knows how much retail is reasonable to insist on. Fortunately, it seems like the kind of question that someone with a background in commercial real estate (i.e., not me) could, with some research, at least provisionally answer. Or so I'm hoping!

On Tue, Feb 16, 2021 at 9:47 AM Amy Ryan <aryan@townofchapelhill.org> wrote:

Just got a note from the manager that he’s asked staff for some analysis; I’ll forward it to you when I receive it.

During the Central West plan, we were anticipating a lot of development across the street at the old airport, which would have supported significant commercial on the Aura site, but with the indefinite postponement of the university’s plans, there’s a worry commercial will struggle here.

Amy

From: Jon Mitchell <capt.jdm@gmail.com>
Sent: Monday, February 15, 2021 4:23 PM
To: Amy Ryan <aryan@townofchapelhill.org>
Subject: Re: Requesting short meeting to discuss Aura development

External email: Don't click links or attachments from unknown senders. To check or report forward to reportspam@townofchapelhill.org

Thanks, Amy. Much appreciated.

Jon

On Mon, Feb 15, 2021 at 3:38 PM Amy Ryan <aryan@townofchapelhill.org> wrote:

Hi Jon:

I haven’t heard anything back from the Manager on the Aura commercial component; I’ll follow up with him and our Economic Development officer.

Best,

Amy

From: Jon Mitchell <capt.jdm@gmail.com>
Sent: Monday, February 15, 2021 11:00 AM
To: Amy Ryan <aryan@townofchapelhill.org>
Cc: Tim O'Shea <oshea.tj@gmail.com>
Subject: Re: Requesting short meeting to discuss Aura development

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Hi Amy,

I hope you're well. Just checking in to see whether you've heard anything further from the Town Manager (or anyone else) regarding the analysis you mentioned below.

FYI, per the applicant's traffic presentation last week, the proposed retail component is now 8,500 square feet (2% of the development) -- down from 13,500 square feet in the September 2020 application. This is 1/3 the size of Midtown Plaza, where the Root Cellar is located (see https://www.townofchapelhill.org/home/showdocument?id=10550 at p. 12). A number of us attending the traffic presentation were struck by the strange juxtaposition of (1) Mr. Jewell's inspiring narrative about Aura as a community gathering space, and (2) the now almost non-existent retail/restaurant space that might provide an impetus for day-to-day meet-ups and gathering by those residing outside this housing complex.

Best,

Jon

On Thu, Dec 24, 2020 at 12:35 PM Amy Ryan <aryan@townofchapelhill.org> wrote:

Hi Tim and Jon:

Just heard back from the Town Manager that he’ll talk to staff and try to get an analysis of realistic commercial potentials on the Aura site. I’ll let you know when I get anything more.

Happy and safe holidays to you both,

Amy

From: Amy Ryan
Sent: Wednesday, December 16, 2020 3:34 PM
To: Tim O'Shea <oshea.tj@gmail.com>
Cc: Jon Mitchell <capt.jdm@gmail.com>
Subject: RE: Requesting short meeting to discuss Aura development

Thanks! See you at 11.

Amy

From: Tim O'Shea <oshea.tj@gmail.com>
Sent: Wednesday, December 16, 2020 11:00 AM
To: Amy Ryan <aryan@townofchapelhill.org>
Cc: Jon Mitchell <capt.jdm@gmail.com>
Subject: Re: Requesting short meeting to discuss Aura development

External email: Don't click links or attachments from unknown senders. To check or report forward to reportspam@townofchapelhill.org

Amy,

Great! Thank you. I've just sent an invite for a Zoom tomorrow from 11-11:30. For your reference, I've pasted the meeting info below as well.

Best,

Tim

Meeting Link:

https://us04web.zoom.us/j/6424354167?pwd=cnZNTUxtYWdpbVU3MG1nS2dObVJ5UT09

Meeting ID: 642 435 4167
Passcode: Welcome

On Tue, Dec 15, 2020 at 7:56 PM Amy Ryan <aryan@townofchapelhill.org> wrote:

I can do a half-hour or so anytime between 10:30 and 12 on Thursday.

Amy

From: Tim O'Shea <oshea.tj@gmail.com>
Sent: Tuesday, December 15, 2020 7:15 PM
To: Amy Ryan <aryan@townofchapelhill.org>
Cc: Jon Mitchell <capt.jdm@gmail.com>
Subject: Re: Requesting short meeting to discuss Aura development

External email: Don't click links or attachments from unknown senders. To check or report forward to reportspam@townofchapelhill.org

Hi Amy,

Thanks so much! Are you free between 8:30-9:30 and 10:30-12 on Thursday? If so, please let me know when works best and I’ll send around a Zoom invite.

Best,

Tim

On Dec 15, 2020, at 6:44 PM, Amy Ryan <aryan@townofchapelhill.org> wrote:

Hi – I’d be happy to do a zoom with you and Jon. This Thursday works for me, either evening or during the day, whichever is better for you.

Best,

Amy

From: Tim O'Shea <oshea.tj@gmail.com>
Sent: Monday, December 14, 2020 1:38 PM
To: Amy Ryan <aryan@townofchapelhill.org>
Cc: Jon Mitchell <capt.jdm@gmail.com>
Subject: Requesting short meeting to discuss Aura development

External email: Don't click links or attachments from unknown senders. To check or report forward to reportspam@townofchapelhill.org

Hi Ms. Ryan,

My name is Tim O'Shea. I live in Chapel Hill on Huntington Drive, near the lot at 1000 MLK Blvd. for which the Trinsic group is proposing the "Aura" development.

I am writing, at the suggestion of my friend Jess Anderson, to see if you are available for a quick phone call or Zoom - maybe 20 minutes - to discuss Aura. My neighbor Jon Mitchell and I would love to understand your perspective, as a thought leader on Central West development. We are following Aura closely and are excited by the potential upsides of developing this lot, though also nervous about the potential traffic impacts as parents of young kids.

If you are available, please let me know when would be convenient. We would really appreciate any time you can offer.

Best regards,

Tim