To the Mayor and Town Council

Several weeks ago I joined a Zoom meeting to hear a public presentation of a traffic impact study for the Aura development proposed for the corner of Estes Drive and MLK. I was disappointed in the quality and scope of the study. It seemed self serving, highlighting the positives and ignoring deficiencies and potential serious issues. Estes is a major East-West connector and MLK one of the major North-South connectors in Chapel Hill. At a minimum approval of this project should be put on hold pending a more comprehensive and thorough traffic impact study. In addition, there are issues relating to rainwater runoff and consistency with the vision of the Central West planning process.

With so many high density residential projects recently completed, underway, or planned in Chapel Hill how can the consultants hired by the developer study future traffic conditions by limiting the scope of the study to a only few intersections near the proposed project. Traffic from all of these new developments will certainly impact traffic on Estes and MLK. By limiting the scope of the study the consultants are guaranteeing that their projections for future traffic growth will be inaccurate. The Town planning department and the Mayor and Town Council should be well aware traffic along Estes and at the Estes MLK intersection is highly congested during peak traffic hours.

The study as, presented, did not include a sensitivity analysis to determine which assumptions and variables used in the model will have the greatest impact on predictions of future traffic conditions. A major drawback of this study, and of studies I have seen presented by the planning department in the past.

The study attempted to address safety issues, but, in my view, ignored several obvious cases. The contribution of traffic from recently opened Azalea Estates (corner of Somerset and Estes) does not appear to be included in the traffic impact study. With approximately 140 apartments and an unknown number of staff and deliveries one would expect it to at least double the number of cars and trucks entering Estes from Somerset. As a resident of the Somerset-Huntington neighborhood, my experience tells me that making left turns onto Estes from Somerset during peak traffic hours will become increasingly difficult and unsafe. In addition, the layout of driveways into and out of Aura will contribute to traffic backup and create safety issues particularly during peak traffic hours. The layout seems clumsy and inconvenient and one might question why the developer has accepted this design

The Traffic analysis as presented appears to present average numbers to reflect what they call Level of Service. For the traffic backup going westbound on Estes at MLK the data shows an average of 82+ seconds wait time. This does not reflect the reality of traffic backed up to the middle and/or elementary schools, something regular travelers on Estes experience daily during peak traffic hours. This presentation puts a rosy picture on a situation that has gotten worse during the 25 years I have lived in this neighborhood. It is a reflection on the degrading quality of life in Chapel Hill caused by poorly managed growth.

When the Central West planning process was debated some years ago we were shown controversial traffic impact studies, again without data to help understand the role of key assumptions and variables. It would be interesting to see how those forecasts of traffic growth compare to the reality we see today.

While traffic was the issue of the meeting I attended, there are other issues around the Aura proposal that don't seem to have been satisfactory addressed

1. 60% of the approximately 15 acre lot will be impervious and likely create water run off and flooding issues to neighboring properties. My understanding is that a proper water runoff study was promised but never done?

2. The project is 98% residential, with only a small commercial element. My understanding is that high residential usage puts a larger demand on town resources. With all of the high density residential projects underway in Chapel Hill, is another high density residential project in the best interests of the residents and taxpayers?

3. The project contains parking for over 600 cars,. Is that consistent with the vision of residents using public transportation and with the vision of the Central West Project?

The traffic issues detailed above and issues related to water runoff, residential vs.commercial development and its impact on Town resources and use of public transportation all raise serious questions on the advisability of proceeding with the Aura project.

Very truly yours,

Huntington Drive